Meteorologists are tracking an unusually calm Atlantic hurricane season that could result in a completely hurricane-free year for the first time since satellite monitoring began. September, historically the peak period for tropical weather development, passed without a single hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin.
The United States National Hurricane Center anticipated a subdued season when it released its initial forecasts in May. Officials predicted between eight and 14 named storms, with only a fraction reaching hurricane status, largely due to the emergence of a powerful El Niño climate pattern.
Although September remained devoid of hurricanes, four named tropical storms did develop during the month. These systems were designated as Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna. Most of these storms remained far out in the open ocean, though they failed to intensify into hurricanes.
Experts explain that the current absence of hurricanes is heavily influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño represents a natural warming of tropical Pacific waters, which triggers widespread shifts in global weather patterns.
As El Niño develops, it alters high-altitude winds across the Atlantic basin, creating a phenomenon known as wind shear. This effect causes wind speeds and directions to change rapidly with height, which disrupts developing thunderstorms and stops them from organizing into powerful tropical cyclones.
While the Atlantic experiences suppressed activity, the eastern North Pacific has seen the opposite effect. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions have fueled a highly active Pacific season.
Data shows that daily sea temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific have broken records previously set during a notably strong El Niño event in 2015. The Pacific basin has already recorded numerous named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, producing energy levels well above typical seasonal averages.
Forecasters at Colorado State University note that the prevailing atmospheric disruptions are expected to persist, keeping Atlantic activity below normal as the season winds down. With the annual cycle officially concluding on November 30 and no systems currently threatening land, the possibility of a historic hurricane-free year in the Atlantic continues to grow.
Reporting based on coverage first published by BBC News. Read the original report at BBC News.
