The Atlantic hurricane basin is on the verge of establishing an unusual modern milestone as a powerful climate pattern suppresses tropical storm development. Although the season has reached its typical historical peak, zero hurricanes have developed across the region thus far, defying the usual expectations for mid-September.
Meteorologists indicate that the current conditions are on track to break the existing record for the latest date in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane. That previous threshold was set on September 11 during the 2002 and 2013 seasons. Typically, a standard year would see roughly eight named storms and three hurricanes by this point in the calendar.
Instead, the Atlantic has only recorded five tropical storms so far, which were named Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard. Current meteorological models show no signs of tropical cyclogenesis over the next week, which will extend this unprecedented quiet stretch. The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through the end of November, leaving several weeks for potential activity later in the year.
The primary driver behind the subdued Atlantic activity is a strengthening El Niño, which represents the natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This global climate phenomenon alters atmospheric circulation and increases upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin. The resulting wind shear tears apart developing thunderstorms before they can organize into sustained tropical systems.
Experts note that this particular El Niño event is tracking toward historic intensity levels. Organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration project that the phenomenon will peak later in the autumn and may surpass historical measurements dating back to the middle of the twentieth century. Forecasters had anticipated a calmer season earlier in the year, releasing predictions in May that called for below-average storm numbers due to the developing Pacific warming.
In addition to wind shear from El Niño, atmospheric conditions have featured persistent layers of dry air and Saharan dust. Strong winds across North Africa routinely transport vast quantities of sand and dust thousands of miles across the ocean. This dry, particulate-laden air creates an environment hostile to the moisture and heat required for tropical storm formation, further contributing to the calm conditions.
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the eastern Pacific basin has experienced an active period in contrast. That region has already produced thirteen named storms, matching the typical output for an entire average season. Five of those storms intensified into hurricanes, including three major systems, with the most recent being Major Hurricane Lowell, which brought hazardous weather conditions to Hawaii.
Reporting based on coverage first published by BBC News. Read the original report at BBC News.
